10 Year Bonds
Ireland (Note this is redeemable in April and October 2020 and therefore has eight years, NOT 10 years, to run as at 17th October, 2011. UPDATE 22nd January 2012, there appears to be a problem accessing prices at Bloomberg for these bonds. You can see the prices for the October 2020 bond at the Irish Stock Exchange daily here.)
5 Year Bonds
Greece (not available)
3 Year Bonds
Spain (not available)
A selection of Euro area and non-Euro area bonds are helpfully summarised here. Moody’s Ratings
| Aaa | highest quality with the smallest degree of risk |
| Aa (Aa1, Aa2, Aa3) | high quality with very low credit risk |
| A (A1, A2, A3) | upper-medium grade subject to low credit risk |
| Baa1, Baa2, Baa3 | moderate credit risk |
| Ba1, Ba2, Ba3 | Junk: questionable credit quality |
| B1, B2, B3 | Junk: subject to high credit risk |
| Caa1, Caa2, Caa3 | Junk: poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk and may be in default |
| Ca | Junk: highly speculative usually in default |
| C | Junk: the lowest rated class of bonds and are typically in default |
Latest Updates 13th July, 2012. Moody’s has downgraded Italy by two notches from A3 to Baa2 with a continuing negative outlook. 14th June, 2012. Moody’s has downgraded Spain by three notches from A3 to Baa3 with a continuing negative outlook. 2nd March, 2012, Moody’s has downgraded Greece’s bonds by one notch from Ca to C with no future outlook. C is the lowest rate class of bonds and reflects the fact the bonds are certain to default. 13th February, 2012. Moody’s has downgraded six EuroZone countries. Relevant to the PIIGS – Spain was downgraded to A3 from A1 with a negative outlook, Italy was downgraded to A3 from A2 with a negative outlook and Portugal was downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2 with a negative outlook 18th October, 2011. Moody’s has downgraded Spain by two notches from Aa2 to A1 with a negative outlook saying “no credible solution of the current sovereign debt crisis has emerged” 4th October, 2011. Moody’s has downgraded Italy by three notches from Aa2 to A2 with a negative outlook citing a “material increase in long-term funding risks for the euro area” 25th July, 2011. Moody’s has downgraded Greece one notch from Caa1 to Ca (junk usually in default) with a developing outlook. 12th July, 2011. Moody’s has downgraded Ireland one notch from Baa3 to Ba1 (junk) with a negative outlook. 5th July, 2011. Moody’s has downgraded Portugal four notches from Baa1 to Ba2, two notches below Ireland and in junk territory. Moody’s maintains its negative outlook on Portugal. 2nd June, 2011. Moody’s has downgraded Greece by three notches from B1 to Caa1 with a negative outlook. 4th May, 2011. Yields have eased following the early announcement of the bailout deal for Portugal in which the country will receive €78bn. 15th April, 2011. Moody’s downgrades Ireland from Baa1 to Baa3, one notch above junk, with a negative outlook, citing expected weakness in the Government’s financial position and “the uncertainty created by the solvency test required by the European Stabilisation Mechanism (ESM) for the provision of future liquidity support.” 5th April, 2011. Spokesman for Olli Rehn that bridging loan facilities will not be made available to Portugal, bringing closer the prospect of an imminent bailout. 5th April, 2011. Moody’s downgrades Portugal to Baa1, outllook negative
NAMA Wine Lake 
5yr @ 9.8 – http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB5YR:IND
Yield inversion, but why. Is it the central bank figures? Hardly.
@Justin, if I understand the Central Bank’s press release correctly then part of the increase in ELA at the CBI in February is a temporary blip whilst banks reconfigure their assets (eg create more self issued notes to convert sterling assets to ECB eligible euro assets) but all that should mean is next month CBI ELA will reduce and ECB financing will increase. In net terms our banks are relying on central bank (ECB + CBI) funding to the tune of €10bn more in Feb than in Jan. When the smoke lifts from today’s announcement I think that will be seen as a worrying development.
As regards the 5 bond year jumping from 9.53% to 9.82% compared with our 10-year bond of 9.65%, pass unless the markets think a default will affect shorter bonds disproportionately. I am sure Enda Kenny will negotiate for Ireland in his own gentlemanly manner and as a true European would bend over backwards to accommodate our neighbours but when this gets down to brass tacks, which is happening at an accelerating rate, even the gentleman Enda will need unambiguously tell our neighbours we cannot afford this bank debt and will need have some type of default. And I would think that happens in the next 3-12 months. But not sure why that should end up pricing the 5 year higher than 10 year.
Once a country (or any other entity) enters genuine financing distress, it becomes less helpful to look at the yield on the debt, and more helpful to look at the price.
oversimplifying a little, the price can be thought of a probability weighted distribution: p100 + (1-p)R, where p=probability of default and R= recovery value. Greece has just entered the critical phase of this process, where the country’s longest dated debt is trading at (a moderately optimistic estimate of) recovery value, in the mid-30s, although this represents a far lower yield than the front-end paper.
mid-40s. D’oh. Not moderately, very.
feck it, (1-p)= probability of default, sorry. I think I’ll go back to lurking.
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Is it possible to short Spanish bonds?
@Jake, not come across such instruments myself but why don’t you contact a fixed income specialist like Glas Securities and ask them
http://www.glassecurities.com/disclaimer/index.php
is it time to sell the 4 bulgarian apartments yet,or should i wait a bit
@gerrymolyneaux – Cmon, everyone knows that property prices “always go up” over the “long term”. Never mind selling those apartments. Buy 4 more – maybe the ones that were built between yours and the sea and which now have the sea view?
Here my guess for whats going on with bonds right now. The Boys at the top table (very top table) are telling Investment houses to buy PIIGS bonds now or we press the red button.
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It appears that money is being moved between one PIIGS bond and another in a very co-ordinated fashion.
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