On this side of the Border, politicians, bankers, media, investors are all praying for a recovery in residential property prices and the venom unloaded on the recent Fitch prediction of a further 20% decline was remarkable. However, those same politicians, bankers, media and investors might do worse than to look at the actual experience of Northern Ireland and consider if Northern Ireland is indeed a pathfinder for prices in the Republic
Today, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency operating under the auspices of finance minister Sammy Wilson publishes its house price series for the three months ending 31st December 2012 – the report is available here. The headlines are – prices are down 3% in Q4, 2012 compared with Q3,2012 and are down a staggering 56.3% since the peak in Q3,2007. What is even more staggering is that UK inflation since Q3,2007 has been 18.7% and in real terms, Northern Ireland residential property is down 63.2%.
On this side of the Border, there has been some evidence of stabilization in H2,2012 though there was a decline of 1.1% in December 2012, but to date we are just 49.6% down from peak nationally and in real terms, because there has only been 1.6% inflation between September 2007 and December 2012, we are down just 50.4%, considerably less than Northern Ireland.
And remember Northern Ireland didn’t have such over-construction, and its vacancy level today is half ours. What Northern Ireland does have is a pretty savage foreclosure and repossession regime and in 2012, there were over 10 applications for repossession every single working day, compared to about 2 on this side of the Border despite us having 2.5 times the population.
And remember this is the league table of the world’s worst residential property crashes. Northern Ireland appears to be now out on its own at the top.
NAMA Wine Lake 
Why is it such heresy to suggest low house prices and low rents are actually a darn good thing for it might create an investment culture, a risk taking culture. One that might actually generate sufficient good employment to take advantage of being next to, or even in, the largest and wealthiest market in the world.
It really amazes me that no one in control sees that sending the entire cohort of leaving cert grads plus 20% out of the country as a complete and utter failure of every aspect of governance.
Emigration is the key for maintaining the status quo.
It gets rid of those most likely to get antsy with the Established, Respectable system we have.
It keeps official unemployment figures from rising above 20%.
It makes those with a job conservative by nature.
Etc.
Hence, we get statements like, “Sure, we can’t all live on this small island”, and “Most of those who emigrate want to travel anyway.”
Don’t forget to mention the house price situation in Holland (part of the EU Core)!!
http://soberlook.com/2012/08/the-crash-of-dutch-housing-market.html
http://www.4-traders.com/news/Dutch-House-Prices-Tumble-to-2004-Levels–14467670/
Source Maarten van Tartwijk at maarten.vantartwijk@dowjones.com
http://www.amsterdamherald.com/index.php/allnews-list/525-20121011-700000-households-left-in-debt-dutch-property-market-banks-mortgages-slump-housing-estate-agents-house-prices-recession-netherlands-economy
Holland is in big trouble… unemployment is rising, house prices crashing, big personal debt, banks are getting nationalised….however one thing the Dutch Govt did do BEFORE nationalisation was…
“The Dutch government nationalised SNS Reaal using a new Intervention Law for the first time.
The law came into force in June 2012 and allows the state to demand that those holding bonds issued by a bank contribute to rescuing the bank if it fails. ”
Source http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9842144/Dutch-state-nationalises-SNS-Reaal-bank.html
Perhaps they took a lesson from Ireland’s book?
The differance with the NI survey compared to the Rebublic’s figures, and the K’s for that matter, is the inclusion in the surver of auction, Repossession and pretty much everything over £20k. Anything at £20k or £30k is pretty much a site and is likely to require the same again in repairs. They have quite alot in this bracket and that will distort the average figures. I have nothing against this but it leaves it meaningless as a comparision tool against other surveys in differant regions.
The figures do show a marked increase in volume tranactions.