• Home
  • NAMA property for sale
  • About
  • The Developers
  • The Tranches

NAMA Wine Lake

Click the green link above for latest news and over 2,600 related articles. NAMA – National Asset Management Agency – part of Ireland's response to its banking crisis and property bubble

Feeds:
Posts
Comments
« Irish Property in 2012 Review
NAMA sells Dublin office block for €28m with eye-watering 10% yield »

Irish Property in 2013 – the predictions

December 30, 2012 by namawinelake

To quote from last year’s predictions blogpost on here

“There are three caveats that should accompany any forecast of property prices (1) none of us has a crystal ball and there are so many variables in how property prices change that, at best, you are getting an informed opinion and (2) when forecasting a “market”, you are not forecasting individual transactions, and property is not like milk – there will obviously be regional differences but even on the same street there will be individual properties and buyers and sellers, landlords and tenants, so a general price change might not affect a particular property and (3) to quote Upton Sinclair “it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it” or to put it another way, you should always bear in mind the motivations of those providing forecasts, and given this is an anonymously-authored blog, that makes assessment difficult.”

Welcome to the 2013 predictions where you can cross palms with cyber silver and the tea leaves are scryed to help tell you what the year ahead will mean for property selling prices in Ireland, residential and commercial and for rents, also residential and commercial. You may care to take a look at the predictions here last year before taking any of this too seriously.

Firstly here is the summary of the predictions

Ireland2013PropertyPredictions

And here are the seven areas taken into consideration

The general economy. Unemployment will remain elevated at 14% despite continuing emigration. The domestic economy will bounce along the bottom with the first half of the year stumbling as the effects of Budget 2013 sink in. The overall economy is difficult to predict, Europe including the UK and the US continue to teeter between the Rapture and the Abyss. Retail has had a good quarter four in 2012 by all accounts, both actual retail indices from the CSO and anecdote for December. Exports have not suffered the expected decline in quarter four seemingly, and both services and manufacturing are growing. Construction is still in the doldrums but credit appears to no longer be contracting.

Property taxes. For once the Government has stuck to a commitment and the mortgage relief for first time buyers has in fact been discontinued from the end of 2012. The new property tax kicks in from July 2013 but in 2013, there will be a 50% discount on the annual charge which will be €315 in a full year for a typical home. We will start to hear more about water charges which may kick in as early as 2014, and these are unlikely to be less than €200 per annum on average to make the cost of installation of meters and administration feasible on a cost basis.  Stamp duty may be increased if transactions start flowing again, and remember the Government has to produce a Budget in December 2013 which will adjust the economy by a further €3.1bn in 2014.

Transparency. We already have the Property Price Register which is prone to errors and only extends back to the start of 2010, but it does provide a basis for comparing values. We are set to have the new commercial leases register by the end of March 2013 so there should be far greater transparency on rental levels, but for the time being at least, there won’t be a commercial property price register and of course there are no plans to make available actual residential rents which are already captured by the Private Residential Tenancies Board.

NAMA. Contrary to popular belief, NAMA actually has little control over the residential market with about 12,000 homes remaining under its control with its borrowers and most of these are rented in rentable areas where rental prices are stable and modestly rising. However NAMA is about to unleash a lot of commercial property onto the market, and there will be €2bn-odd of staple finance to sweeten the deal, particularly on better quality properties with good tenants and where investors have a track record. NAMA has given €6m of rent reductions to commercial tenants in 2013 and the same is expected in 2014 as the domestic economy remains shaky. There will also be more evidence of NAMA investing in developments, so the perception there is an ever dwindling supply of property, particularly prime central Dublin office property, may diminish.

The banks. Deleveraging will continue apace and there is still a mountain of loans and property that non-NAMA banks in particular want to offload. Banks are lousy managers of property so there will continue to be an ample supply of property coming onto the market, courtesy of banks. On the other side of the transaction, there has been some recent stabilization in the provision of credit both to households and businesses and this should improve the general background music.

Bankruptcy laws and repossessions. We expect the new Personal Insolvency Bill to be given presidential assent any day now and it should be immediately commenced. Justice minister Alan Shatter has predicted that there will be 3,000 bankruptcies in Ireland in 2013, up from 30 in a typical year.  Banks are expected to enforce buy to let loans and the 600 repossessions per annum in Ireland may rocket, the prediction on here is that there will be 5,000 repossessions in 2013 and that is a considerable stock of what will be depressed property to be offloaded on the market.

Allsop Space. Another four or five Allsop Space auctions are expected in 2013 and there may be mega 200-Lot events. The successful venture between British auctioning giant Allsop and Dublin property company Space seems to have taken a new direction recently with a focus on commercial property. These auction events will provide finger-tip assessments of the market overall. There will be increased efforts to get more private vendors to sell their property at auction, and who knows, maybe NAMA will embrace the transparency of the auction especially after the Enda Farrell affair in 2012 and the constant prodding from Senator Mark Daly to make the selling process clearer.

Advertisement

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Reddit

Like this:

Like Loading...

Related

Posted in Banks, House Price Database, IMF, Irish economy, Irish Property, NAMA, Politics, vacant property | 2 Comments

2 Responses

  1. on December 30, 2012 at 11:44 am seniorpropertyobserver

    NWL Looking at your prediction on last year it has turned out spot on and there is no reason to believe that your prediction for 2013 won’t be accurate too.Now the one missing piece of info is the property cash transactions which hopefully will be produced early in 2013 by Daft as promised.Added to the mortgage transactions it is felt that it will undoubtedly show a further 10% reduction on actual prices nationally.I would add this to your prediction above to make an overall fall in prices as 25% and possibly more.Coming close now to the prediction of Morgan Kelly at 80% from peak which is a realistic prediction taking the overall economy into consideration as you have mentioned already.Wait till Budget 2014,2015,2016 – we’ve seen nothing yet!


  2. on January 9, 2013 at 12:35 pm Sparky

    @seniorpropertyobserver
    Sorry to be pedantic, but the NWL prediction from last year is far from spot on. Prediction was 15-20% decline, actual was 8% decline as per: https://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/01/02/irish-residential-property-prices-still-falling-but-at-lower-rate/
    For what its worth, I also think the prediction for 2013 is a bit on the heavy side, and think we will see a moderate decline of 0-5%



Comments are closed.

  • Recent Posts

    • Test – 12 November 2018
    • Farewell from NWL
    • Happy 70th Birthday, Michael
    • Of the Week…
    • Noonan denies IBRC legal fees loan approval to Paddy McKillen was in breach of European Commission commitments
    • Gayle Killilea Dunne asks to be added as notice party in Sean Dunne’s bankruptcy
    • NAMA sues Maria Byrne and Graham Byrne in Dublin’s High Court
    • Johnny Ronan finally wins a court case
  • Recent Comments

    Wisemama on Eddie Hobbs’s US “partner” fir…
    Dorothy Jones on Of the Week…
    Sean Bean on Eddie Hobbs’s US “partner” fir…
    John Foody on Of the Week…
    Wisemama on Eddie Hobbs’s US “partner” fir…
    otto on Of the Week…
    Frank Street on Of the Week…
    Wisemama on Eddie Hobbs’s US “partner” fir…
    John Gallaher on Of the Week…
    John Gallaher on Of the Week…
    who_shot_the_tiger on Eddie Hobbs’s US “partner” fir…
    Sean Bean on Eddie Hobbs’s US “partner” fir…
    otto on Of the Week…
    Brian Flanagan on Of the Week…
    Robert Browne on Gayle Killilea Dunne asks to b…
  • Twitter Updates

    • Funniest case in Irish legal history? 1. ex-Cllr Fred Forsey convicted of RECEIVING a corrupt payment 2. developer… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 years ago
    • Really looking forward to this at 9pm tonight, esp the first Garda on the scene. Well worth reading this background… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 years ago
    • Tea time on the day the president of the ECB tells us we [in Ireland] are paying more interest on our loans than th… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 years ago
    • “I am grateful for you to refer to Mr Sugarman...on the specific question of Unicredit, responsibility at ECB lies… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 years ago
    • @JMcGuinnessTD now confronts ECB about "the honest whistleblower" @WhistleIRL and his disclosures of liquidity issu… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 years ago
    • Details, including court documents of class action in New York against Ryanair and CEO Michael O'Leary.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 years ago
    • Draghi tells @paulmurphy_TD the ECB doesn't remove govts, the people do, that's democracy. Bet the people will be m… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 years ago
    • Wow! Draghi says there is no net interest cost for the Anglo bonds whilst they're held by the Irish central bank. T… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 4 years ago
    Follow @namawinelake
  • Click on date for that day’s posts

    December 2012
    M T W T F S S
     12
    3456789
    10111213141516
    17181920212223
    24252627282930
    31  
    « Nov   Jan »
  • Blog Stats

    • 5,113,731 hits

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

WPThemes.


Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • NAMA Wine Lake
    • Join 1,326 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • NAMA Wine Lake
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Copy shortlink
    • Report this content
    • View post in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...
 

    %d bloggers like this: