For a country on this planet that has been uniquely affected by emigration – just take a look above at how our population has declined whilst our neighbours in the UK have seen their population grow strongly – it is deeply regrettable that Ireland doesn’t have any robust means for measuring emigration. We saw when the most recent Census was published last year that the annual intercensal estimates of emigration and immigration produced by the Central Statistics Office were seriously wrong – the CSO annual estimates indicated net inward migration of 29,000 between 2006 and 2011, but the more accurate Census 2011 showed 116,000. It is a topic that has been discussed on here from time to time, and you will be pleased to learn that the CSO has now started using a variety of information sources which should dramatically improve the accuracy of the annual estimates. And on 27th September, 2012 we should get the first of the new improved estimates, with the release of population estimates for the year ending April 2012.
On Tuesday this week, the Sinn Fein finance spokesperson asked An Taoiseach Enda Kenny about the inaccuracy in the migration statistics collated by the CSO, and about the steps taken by the CSO to improve the accuracy in future estimates. An Taoiseach responded that with effect from the publication of the next annual estimate which will be next Thursday, the statistics will benefit from increased data collection and checking which will include reference to work permits issued overseas to Irish nationals and PPS numbers issued in Ireland.
Deputy Pearse Doherty: To ask the Taoiseach the actual net migration to this State between April 2006 and April 2011; the estimated intercensal estimate of net migration between those same two dates and the reason for the difference; the steps that have been taken by the Central Statistics Office to improve the accuracy of its intercensal estimates.
An Taoiseach, Enda Kenny: Net migration for the period 2006 to 2011 was 116,000. This was derived as the difference between the total usually resident population as measured at both censuses less the natural increase in the population (that is the births less the deaths) for the intervening period.
The preliminary estimate of net migration over the 2006 to 2011 period, published as part of the annual population estimates series, was 29,000, giving a difference of 87,000 compared with the census figure.
To put the difference in context it is important to bear in mind that the estimated gross migration flows over this inter-censal period account for about one-sixth of the total 2011 population.
The principal source of information for the inter-censal estimates of both immigration and emigration is the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS). The published estimates, which are classified by sex, broad age group, origin and destination, and nationality are subject to sampling variability.
A revised series of inter-censal population estimates will be published on 27th September. This will incorporate data from a number of sources, such as:
a more detailed analysis of the number of Personal Public Service (PPS) numbers allocated to non-Irish nationals in a given year who still had either employment (P35) or social welfare activity the following year; census results on one year inflows by age and sex, and the recorded years of arrival of immigrants.
Revisions to emigration data will incorporate details of work permits issued to Irish nationals in respect of a number of destinations including Australia, US, Canada and New Zealand. In addition, the number of National Insurance numbers (equivalent to PPS numbers) issued to Irish nationals in the UK will be incorporated in the revisions.
This new analysis will form part of ongoing work aimed at improving the methodology used to measure migration.
The next issue of the Population and Migration Estimates to be published on 27th September 2012 will provide estimates of the population for April 2012 along with estimated immigration and emigration in the year to April 2012, and also revised estimates for immigration, emigration and total population for the years 2007-2011.
NAMA Wine Lake 
I’ve always wondered how accurate SUM(Arrivals-Departures) for all seaports and airports would be. Probably not 87000 off target at least.
Useless. Too many mortgage navvies and holidaying retirees. I am being deadly serious.
@ NWL The CSO operates with one hand tied behind its back on migration as there is no obligation on on anyone to register their place of abode let alone their arrival or departure from the State.
However the wide discrepancies referred to above are not unique. The Lithuanian CSO had to revise their figures substantially in the recent past, even though their citizens are obliged to register their departure. They have a specific site dealing with migration, http://123.emn.lt/en/home. The Lithuanians have consistently estimated that net migration to Ireland by their citizens was far greater than estimated by the Irish authorities.
The recent Latvian & Bulgarian census results have also shown far lower populations than had been estimated. The enumerated Latvian population is now below the 1959 number.
PPS Nos are issued for many reasons. For example they are required as part of the CAT procedures. Therefore if a person leaves his/her grandchildren €250, then each child must get a PPS No as part of the tax return requirements, even though they are not resident in the State.
Who ever wrote the question for Mr. Doherty, failed of course to ask whether the CSO will be provided with the resources required to do the job properly will be provided.
apologies, completely off topic but this is an absolute disgrace, especially to emigrants who want to keep up to date.The always fantastic broadsheet.ie first brought it to my attention.
“Reports of our abrupt demise are, unfortunately, correct for the time being.
The Oireachtas has, with no warning whatsoever, terminated its publishing of debates in a structured data format. Ireland’s only large-scale open government data project was killed off on September 18th without discussion in the interest of what it hilariously calls ‘efficiency’.
Therefore KildareStreet has been forced to cease publication for the time being.
Our initial public statement on the issue can be found here.”
http://www.kildarestreet.com/
In 1800 Ireland was in fact a wealthy country. Then it entered into a political and economic union with the rest of the UK. It was downhill from there.
The British per-se didn’t not ruin Ireland. But union with Britian did. The increase in population of the UK between 1801 and 1901 corresponds to about a 1% growth rate on average over those 100 years. And each and every year, on average, that growth rate was remove from Ireland by the slow application of loss of political influence, apathy, neglect, and a constant asset and brain-drain to the UK each year.
Ireland went from a wealthy country to a pauperised ghetto in 100 years. With one exception, the decline was so slow that no-one noticed, much less cared. The country was ruined because it gave up its parliament, its sovereignty, and its ability to decide its own future.
And now, we are set to give up our future to enter another union. This time the great European Banking Union. I wonder where Ireland will end up in another 100 years?
The acid test will be the numbers of children in private schools studying German for their Leaving Certificates.
@OMF, Slow?…….55% of the population gone between 1840 and 1900?
Ireland’s population growth rate isn’t the whole story. You have to examine the general decline of the country following the act of Union. The analysis was actually first done by Marx and Engels.
@ OMF
The optimists will learn German; the pessimists will learn Cantonese.
@ Bunbury
The smart ones will learn Mandarin.
From the Citi September 2012 outlook for Ireland:
“Nevertheless, for Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, the crisis looks set to leave a legacy of high unemployment and very high government debt-to-GDP ratios (90%+, and, in most cases, well above that level). Citi analysts doubt that any of these countries will be able to sustain normal market access at a tolerable yield without the backstop of official support in coming years. There are arguments in
favour of implementing widespread debt restructuring early, to limit the extent to which restructuring risks hang over the system and paralyse decision-making.
However, in practice the process is likely to be lengthy and drawn-out over several years, because of hopes that periphery countries can grow their way back to fiscal sustainability and widespread reluctance to inflict early losses on the already weak banking system.”
With an outlook like that – why would anyone in their right mind stay?
That chart is a pretty damning indictment on the incompetence of the business and administrative class on this island.
I’ve referenced ‘Ireland, 1912-1985: Politics and Society’ by Joseph Lee previously on these pages and his commentary on emigration & establishment attitudes towards it is well worth a read.
Start at p.374 at this link if you’re interested:
http://books.google.ie/books/about/Ireland_1912_1985.html?id=h19tLDUUPGYC