The Nationwide Building Society has this morning published its UK House Price data for April 2012. The Nationwide tends to be the first of the two UK building societies (the other being the Halifax) to produce house price data each month, it is one of the information sources referenced by NAMA’s Long Term Economic Value Regulation and is the source for the UK Residential key market data at the top of this page.
The Nationwide says that the average price of a UK home is now GBP £164,314 (compared with GBP £163,327 in March 2012 and GBP £162,764 at the end of November 2009 – 30th November, 2009 is the Valuation date chosen by NAMA by reference to which it values the Current Market Values of assets underpinning NAMA loans). Prices in the UK are now 11.7% off the peak of GBP £186,044 in October 2007. Interestingly the average house price at the end of March 2012 being GBP £164,314 (or €199,259 at GBP 1 = EUR 1.22) is 25% above the €159,044 implied by applying the CSO March 2012 index to the PTSB/ESRI peak prices in Ireland. The average home in Northern Ireland in Q4, 2011 was worth €163,510, according to the University of Ulster/Bank of Ireland survey.
With the latest release from Nationwide, UKhouse prices have risen 1.0% since 30th November, 2009, the date chosen by NAMA pursuant to the section 73 of the NAMA Act by reference to which Current Market Values of assets are valued. The NWL Index is now at 818 (because only an estimated 20% of NAMA property in the UK is residential and only 29% of NAMA’s property overall is in the UK, small changes in UK residential have a negligible impact on the index) meaning that average prices of NAMA property must increase by a weighted average of 22.3% for NAMA to breakeven on a gross basis.
According to the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility which independently monitors and comments on the UK economy, house prices are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2012 before increasing by 0.1% in 2013, 2.5% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015 and 4.5% also in 2016. UK inflation remains elevated at an annualized 3.5% in March 2012, and is set to be close to 3% in 2012 – remember that UK inflation has increased by over 15% since their peak whereas in Ireland inflation has been subdued and is one third of that – the UK has pumped GBP0.3tn of “quantitative easing” into its GBP1.5tn economy.UK interest rates may increase later this year to combat inflation – the base rate has been 0.5% since February 2009.The UK economy is projected to grow by an anaemic 0.8% in 2012 in real terms, close to our own Department of Finance’s projection for Ireland at 0.7%.
NAMA Wine Lake 
And I thought, if you have your own printing press, everything is fixed and fine…
A little from the FT
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f01e6f48-9516-11e1-ad72-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ttWrl2Pg
The reference to BASEL III is interesting.
@Ahura, thanks. I wonder what part of implementing Basel III, which will indeed make it more expensive for banks to lend for commercial property, made the son of Tipp/Waterford, George Osborne, say
“I’m not prepared to go out there and say something that will make me an idiot five minutes later” and “I have eight people turning up for dinner in 15 minutes in London so we might as well stay here and get it sorted tonight”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9242279/Chancellor-George-Osborne-tells-EU-he-wont-sign-Britain-up-to-idiotic-Basel-III-plan.html
I had the impression that the level of capital requirements weren’t the problem for George Osborne. That it was other europeans pushing for lower capital levels that would put uk banks at a competitive disadvantage.
That is why Spain with its strong saving bank sector backs the UK’s proposal…LOL.
It’s about the question, if the still to adopted banking regulation will be gouverned nationally or by an EU institution. (One could imagine becoming the EBA such an authority).
If this will be done nationally, one will have the effect that the banks headquartered in the bigger states, especially in the states with the deeper pockets, will have a clear competition advantage.