Ireland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) this morning released its population estimates for April 2011. Given that we had a census in April 2011 and preliminary results released in June, we already knew that the population had grown by 8.1% (341,421 people) in the past five years from 4,269,848 to 4,581,269. So the CSO release this morning with its estimate of 4,484,300 for April 2011 looks a little ridiculous because we have the actual numbers; but the reason for the difference is down to the CSO’s method of estimating population change from year to year. In simple terms, the CSO undertakes a quarterly survey of households every quarter and uses that survey of a sample of the population to extrapolate totals for the entire country.
So the total population of the country in April 2011 will not have changed as a result of this morning’s publication but we have learned the following that is new:
(1) The CSO estimates that 76,400 people emigrated fromIrelandin the year to April 2011, up 17% from 65,300 who were estimated to have emigrated the previous year.
(2) Annual immigration has, perhaps counter-intuitively, also increased – by 37%, the biggest % increase since 1988 – from 30,800 for the year ending April 2010 to 42,300 for the year ending April 2011
(3) Net outward migration is estimated at 34,100 of which 23,000 were Irish nationals
(4) 67,500 of emigrants are aged 15-44
(5) The CSO estimates the population of Dublin today at 1,199,300 down 0.7% from its estimate of 1,207,000 for the previous year. The preliminary census results for 2011 showed that Dublin’s population today is 1,270,603 up from 1,187,176 in 2006 (change of 83,427 or 7%). Plainly the CSO’s for the year ending April 2011 are different to the preliminary census but the indication is thatDublin’s population is falling. The so-called Mid-East region, Dublin’s commuter belt shows the greatest regional increase in the year ending April 2011 according to the CSO’s estimates with a 1.8% increase. An interpretation of these estimates is that people are moving out fromDublinto commuter belts.
(6) Our remarkable birth rate has seemingly increased and our mortality rate has continued to decrease giving us a natural population increase of 47,700 – the biggest annual natural increase since at least 1987.
(7) Population overall is estimated to have increased last year by 13,600. On a very simple basis, with an average of 2.7 souls per Irish household that would indicate a need for 5,037 new dwellings. Of course with the gradual splintering of Irish households, estimates on here were for 17,000 new homes just to accommodate smaller household sizes in the population generally. Figures on obsolescence in Irish housing are nigh-impossible to come by but we do know that new construction, based on connection to the national power company, will run at about 10,000 this year. There is an overhang of vacant housing estimated at over 100,000 properties including 33,000 on so-called ghost estates. From a supply:demand viewpoint, it seems in general terms that prices of property generally will continue to come under pressure for some time.
NAMA Wine Lake 
@ NWL The immigration figure for the EU 12 is given as 5,800 for year to April 2010 & 9,600 for the year to April 2011. (Table 2) However the Lithuanian Statistics Office have published migration figures for Ireland showing 2,763 for 2009 & 13,048 for 2010 (calendar years) almost all of whom were Lithuanian nationals.
While I accept that there may be timing differences, Lithuania is just one of the twelve countries involved. Unfortunately the CSO does not breakout the numbers by country, rather gives these very broad headings.
However because of the obligation to register your abode in most European countries, it is more likely that the Lithuanian figures are far more accurate than ours
The Lithuanian information is available in Chapter 7 of their Demographic Yearbook 2010 http://www.stat.gov.lt
The quarterly household surveys have never struck me as particular accurate but the discrepancies noted above are huge.
Sorry NWL,
This isn’t really my are but, are the CSo basically saying the census results mean these figures are all wrong but we went ahead an published them anyway?
And that we will update them in the future?
@Rob S,
“are the CSo basically saying the census results mean these figures are all wrong but we went ahead an published them anyway”
No, there are two means of measuring population in April 2011 – one is the census and that is the accurate one. The other is taking the CSO estimate of population in April 2010, adding estimated (births minus deaths) and subtracting estimated (emigration minus immigration). This second measure is estimated and the census tells us that somewhere between 2006 and 2011 the CSO got its estimates wrong, in particular its emigration/immigration because deaths/births are recorded accurately as they occur.
Yesterday’s figures from the CSO give us the best estimate we have of emigration/immigration for the year ended April 2011. During the pasy five years the CSO has overestimated (emigration minus immigration) by about 100,000. This is not a black mark against the CSO because they use a quarterly survey of some households to determine emigration/immigration and then extrapolate that to the entire population – kind of like TAM and giving 1.000 set top boxes to study TV viewing habits and then extrapolating that to say that 1m watched the Rose of Tralee.
Will the CSO update the annual estimates of emigration/immigration? I don’t know and I don’t see how they can allocate the 100,000 overestimate to individual years between 2006 – 2011. Will check though.
1. What deduction can we make from figures that are so inconsistent? Population out by 100K. 5 yr immigration figures out by 90K. I see the CSO boys in the airport surveying passengers at the departure gates. Obviously this methodology doesn’t work well enough to be useful.
2.most of the overhang of vacant properties is in rural locations far from work. Some high profile vacant developments in Dublin but no so many. I hope NAMA’s loans are not secured on too many rural properties as I can’t see what value they could have.
Thanks NWL.
Seeing on Irisheconomy that publication of the figures may have been mandatory anyway so maybe not quite the big deal after all.
@Rob, the CSO responded to a query and said that in respect of revising their annual estimates for 2006-2011
“revisions will be based on the examination of the Census 2011 data regarding one year flows and a cohort analysis based on a number of key demographic variables such as age, gender and nationality. In addition, the most up todate migration indicators (such as allocation of social security numbers and visas issued) will also be accessed to improve the migration estimates for the years 2007 – 2011.”
@Kirsten
“What deduction can we make from figures that are so inconsistent?”
No critical deduction, that’s for sure. But the quarterly national household survey seems to be the best official indication. Beyond that we have anecdote. We don’t have a population register in this country as they do in some countries where you have to register your presence within a set period of time and where departures are more accurately measured. The CSO does access visa application information and social security allocations but these will only be indicative (no visa for the EU for example and children may not be picked up with social security allocations.
@ Namawinelake
So it’s not accurate to say ‘Dublin population falling’ as you do in the title. Depending on how you spread the 100,000 out it may actually be rising or more likely, stagnant. A far cry from some of the nonsense coming from the media over the last few years that’d make one feel like one is going to be the last person left on the island by the time this thing plays out.
I’d imagine we’re predominately exporting men that were involved in the construction sector and importing people with language and computer skills. We’re a European base for a lot of NMCs yet, correct me if I’m wrong, we have the least amount of people speaking a 2nd language in the EU. Something which may be forgivable if the money we’ve thrown at the Irish language actually proved fruitful over the years. Let’s hope Ruairi Quinn does a job for us over the coming years and transofmrs our rote learning system in to an education system.
@John, the entire title of the blogpost – the annual emigration, immigration and the “Dublin population falling” are all extracted from the CSO publication yesterday. We know that the CSO under-estimated net inward migration between 2006-2011 but we do not know when the erroneous estimation occurred (I say “erroneous” but the CSO’s annual estimates are accurate within the context of their methodology which is to survey a sample of households and extrapolate that).
So the best information we have for the year ending April 2011 in terms of annual emigration, immigration and *annual* population change is yesterday’s publication which claims last year’s emigration was 76k, immigration 42k and that the population of Dublin fell 0.7%. So the title is accurate in that context and that is the best information we have for the *year* to April 2011.
Apologies for attributing the title to your good self. It is the best information we have for the year to april but we know that cummulatively that same methodology has provided a figure over the course of 2006-2011 that is 100,000 (nearly) short of where it should be.
Is the difference evenly distributed over the years? Is it distributed more heavly to the start or the end of the years. We simply don’t know. So that leads me to think it’s too much to say that ‘Dublin population falling’; ‘Dublin flawed population estimate falling relative to the last flawed estimate’ is what they should say.
I concede making the leap to stagnate or rising population is a step too far in the other direction of interputting flawed data, but we simply don’t know.
Incidentally, even if there wasn’t a 100,000(nearly) error and the above estimates were facts, it still falls way way way short of the nonsense coming from some parts of the media in recent months/years. Mass Emigration has not transpired.
From the census:
Dublin population rise from 2006-2011 : +83,427 (7%)
Fingal +13.8%
South Dub +7.4%
Dun Laoghaire +6.7%
Dub City +3.8%
@Kirsten, yes those are the figures of population changes covering the *five year* period from April 2006 to April 2011.
Apparently the methodology adopted by the CSO for producing annual estimates of migration has demonstrated itself to be unreliable; again, the methodology is mostly based on taking a quarterly sample of households and studying what is happening there. The results are then extrapolated to the whole population of Ireland. Whilst not a statistician, I at least understand that sampling is a legitimate tool used all the time by statisticians to extrapolate results to the total population.
The quarterly national household survey is how we get our official unemployment rate (14.5%), and other statistics commonly accepted as fact.
So I’d repeat that for the *year* ending April 2011 the CSO publication on Thursday last gives the best official estimate of migration and population change. And until the CSO examine the “error” in migration estimates between 2006-2011 I accept the latest estimates to be the best reflection of what is happening and assume the “error” occurred in 2006-2010.
Could you remind me why the 2011 numbers are more accurate than the 2006-2010 data?
@Kirsten, the 2011 may or may not be more accurate than the 2006-2010 figures, but for 2011 they are the best we have from official sources.