This is a follow-up entry on Irish emigration and accompanies the entry from last week entitled “Is there any hope for the country”. That entry opened with a film reference about Irish-Americans which had a title which nicely tied into the subject at hand : “The Departed”. And this follow-up entry might as well open with a reference to a couple of movies. Two very different movies – the Polish film “Stalker” and the more popular first film in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Not for their plots or anything like that, but that both films featured landscapes in which there was evidence of past civilisations, with ruins and artefacts.
When I was a child, it was great fun to be active in the garden. Ours was a working garden in the sense it was used to grow vegetables and had the odd fruit bush. So there was a great deal of digging and planting, drills and ridges. There was something odd about the garden though, because as you’d dig you’d often find unusual stuff – clay pipes, bits of crockery, a knife or a spoon, sometimes an old coin. And you’d often find the same in fields that were sown with crops – finding such items wasn’t unusual.
As for the fields themselves, those fields adjacent to the road would generally be marked out with ditches and hedges but sometimes with sections of stone walls. And these weren’tConnemarastone walls but cemented stone as you might have found on an old house.
Many years later, the mystery was solved when I saw a map of the area drawn in 1912. Where there were only two houses in the 1970s, there were 12 in 1912 and 10 houses had subsequently been razed to the ground save for walls adjacent to the road. And when you consider the fact that in 1912, we had a population that was half the peak in the early 1840s (the 1841 Census population presumably continued to grow until the potato crop failed in 1845), and additionally consider the trends towards urbanisation, it wouldn’t have been surprising if there had been 24 houses in the 1840s and there was probably a whole village where there were just two rural houses left in the 1970s. As as you’d dig in your garden and looked around, there was the evidence of a former civilisation that had vanished.
Now an implication from the entry last week was that population growth and success are tied together. And that is demonstrably not always true. In the bad old days of theSoviet Union, they gave you medals for bearing children and having large families.North KoreaandZimbabweare two countries whose populations are understood to be have grown strongly in the latter part of the 20th century. Yet both are generally regarded as basket-cases. So population growth doesn’t always equate with success or better social conditions or what we would generally call better countries.
But it would seem that the reverse – population decline – is generally associated with failure – disease, famine, natural catastrophe, war and economic hardship. Of course a decline can take place naturally even with a good society because the birth rate is not sufficient to offset the death rate.Japanis supposed to be experiencing that, and has been for years, though every time there’s a census there, the results have always shown growth from the previous census. In Europe, several countries have low birth rates -Germany,ItalyandPolandfor examples. But low birth rates are a relatively modern phenomenon often associated with wealth, female emancipation and equal rights and development of contraceptive methods.
So why has Ireland’s population more or less remained flat in the past two hundred years and in fact declined since 1841? We had the Famine in the 1840s – specifically after the failure of the potato crop in 1845,1846,1848 and 1849 -which led to a net reduction in population of 1.6m in a decade (1m dead, 1m emigrated offset by 0.4m births) but famine and disease was never rife to the extent of say, the Black Death or AIDS. War in Irelandwas very limited indeed, since 1800 – we’ve never really had large-scale pitched battles, trench warfare, aerial bombardment. We don’t suffer natural catastrophes like hurricanes, earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanic activity, droughts, bush-fires, blizzards, floods (yes we have limited gorse fires, the Shannonand a few other rivers do burst their banks now and again and we did have the Night of the Big Wind in 1839 which sounds more amusing than it actually was).
Even the Famine in the 1840s which was superficially due to the failure of the potato crop, but more generally due to the failure of the British administration and its local Irish executive, had come to an end at the start of the 1850s. Yet the population ofIrelanddeclined in each decade afterwards until 1921 and it then stayed flat for 40 years before beginning to rise in the 1960-1980 period. It declined again in the 1980s and then started to grow strongly in the 1990s onwards.
The reason forIreland’s flat population appears to be emigration. And the conclusion on here is that emigration was due to occupation and maladministration and lack of industrialisation in the 1800s. But why did emigration continue for 40 years after independence in 1921 and again in the 1980s and apparently now in the 2010s? Maybe there will be another entry on the subject over the next couple of months. It would be particularly interesting to establish the political positions on emigration.
It’s difficult to know where to end this entry. On a film reference? To me, the figures outlined at the top of this entry are as stark as Charlton Heston coming across the head of the Statue of Liberty at the end of the Planet of the Apes movies and recognising that as a nation we have been idiotic in managing our affairs for many, many decades. Or maybe in 150 years, some other child will be digging their garden and finding old Microsoft Zunes or discarded mobile telephones to evidence anIrelandin 2010.
[The spreadsheet of the original data from which the table at the top of this post is simplified and extracted, is here – sources for the data are shown in the comments field, data is mostly from the British Office of National Statistics (ONS) and the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO)]
UPDATE: 12th September, 2011. The National University of Ireland in Maynooth has produced statistics and an application to examine the population of Ireland broken down by town and village from 1841 onwards and is available here.
NAMA Wine Lake 
@NWL
I am pleased that you have questioned one of the mantra’s being spouted at the moment, that popualtion growth is virtually proof of economic success.
The other question you raise is why does emigration emerge again and again in Ireland?
It is young people that emigrate.
Why? Because the burden of economic adjustment in Ireland has always been thrust on the younger generation. That is the harsh question that Ireland as a society must ask itself. Why as a society does it not decide to share the burden of economic adjustment on both across social classes and more particularly across generations.
The OAP, sorry seniors citizens, protest against the removal of automatic entitlement to a medical card, is a case in point. It was a mininmalist measure. But the older generation were not prepared to concede.
There may a lot more me-fein in Irish society than sinn-fein.
“But the older generation were not prepared to concede.”
This ageist comment bears some scrutiny. I’d propose that it’s not age but the sharing of power that is the issue. As we have seen no group gives up power without a fight: watching the Catholic Church veer from one disaster to another shows how stupid bodies can be as they try to hold onto power.
The older generation simply looked at how other groups operated and copied their modus operandi. Not very noble but understandable.
All you have to do is listen the PR babble to see how each lobby protects it’s interest. (Nobody seems to worry about their own self interest, always somebody else’s).
We have consultants and doctors worried about their patients, university presidents guarding their students, unions protecting the poor, farmers worried about consumer choice and of course the construction lobby whose only concern is the good of society. As for the lawyers, estate agents, bankers, auditors, economists and accountants their concern for general good is long established.
The older generation simply looked at how power is not shared in this society and said we will play the game like every other lobby.
We started at the bottom and took from the weakest and most vulnerable.
Any society that bows to the powerful while robbing the blind and the poor has no claim to morality.
We need to start at the top and ask/demand that those at the top give the largest share and work down. If this process is followed I’m sure the older generation will be more than happy to make their contribution.
@NWL
Very interesting stuff. I am not a demographics expert but it is interesting to look at pop growth rates immediately post famine. The rates for the four countries for 1861-2011 are 10% (Ireland), 178% (England), 71% (Scotland) and 134% (Wales). Given that Ireland seems to have had a sustained high birth rate throughout this period, emigration has been a huge issue as you indicate.
You have raised a very important topic that begs lots of very fundamental questions about our State and its state. Maybe, you’d consider producing a Part III which delves deeper? For example, tie in numbers of Irish-born (and maybe 2nd gen) in USA, UK, Auz, Canada, NZ and mainland EU. What would happen if these people got a vote?
@Brian, there will be a part 3 at some point which I hope will examine political stances on emigration. To kick things off, my own stance is any political party which sets out to promote emigration, perhaps as a means to create a safety valve to reduce the 470,000 on the Live Register and the concomitant social welfare budget, or which fails to make staying in Ireland more attractive than leaving, is a failed political party.
@itsapoliticalworld, we can blame the ghosts of past administrations for some of the departed. But we live in the 21st century and mining, domestic steel and cotton mills are no longer necessary for industrialisation. In information technology, Ireland had a reasonable start, and indeed today has the makings of a hub. People and education is what we need with pro-entrepreneurship ethos and we have the makings of an industrially strong 21st century Ireland. We have the people, indeed we have a demographically attractive population. We have okay education but it’s nothing special by OECD standards – http://stats.oecd.org/PISA2009Profiles/# . We need a better entrepreneurial ethos or to be able to attract entrepreneurship.
In two words, rancherism and deIndustrialisation – Ireland being maintained as place to produce the roast beef of England, and to feed its armies. The dominant resulting classes being the ranchers with their FG party and petty bourgeois and small farmers in FF. Both used emigration as a political safety valve ever since.
There are a zillion stories out there like mine but I thought this might be of interest since I follow this blog from afar. My great-grandfather (McGahuey) was a stableboy in County Tyrone who emigrated to the US in the 1860’s. He found work building railroads in the coal region of Eastern Pennsylvania and, apparently, was quite clever as he worked his way up to be an engineer. The generations that followed have done fairly well, no Mellon or Obama, but mostly professional. I have returned to Ireland frequently for visits and have witnessed the collapse first-hand. There are not many stableboys today, it is more likely to be a recent graduate out the door. I consider myself very lucky. If my family had stayed in Ireland, I doubt very much I would have a PhD and speak three languages and lived in five countries. I mention this not out of a sense of “showing off”, but as a very sad fact of history.
@Jake, thanks for sharing. I didn’t mean to suggest that all emigration was bad. Australia and New Zealand are well known for their youngsters in particular taking a few years out to see the world, work elsewhere and acquire global experience. Thing is, they tend to return home, and that is reflected in their population growth. Irish emigration in the main appears to be a one-way ticket.
short term: Could we consider the demise of the catholic church in Ireland as a reason for fewer people emigrating in recent times? Also the large English speaking economies (uk, usa) are struggling.
long term: certain career opportunities are limited due to population size and conservative mindset. hold into what you’ve got and if you get the chance grab a bit more.
I don’t really want to dwell excessively on the past and would prefer to deal with the current position and the lessons that can be learned from the past. In some ways the past is now a completely foreign place.
The Irish birth rate is presently the highest in the European Union. However 25% of births are foreign, i.e. the children are to foreign parents. This compares to just 5% in Germany and 7% in France.
During the bubble years the then Governments, both dominated by Fianna Fáil, failed to tackle the participation issue within the economy, leaving a large proportion of the Irish population on the margins. It was easier for the State, and certainly easier for the owners of Irish capital, to import workers from Eastern Europe, rather than tackling longer term problems.
We are now left with a participation rate of approx. 57%, far below the level necessary to maintain a modern European society. Key groups within society such as lone parents were left to their own devices on OPF payments rather than being moved into training and the workforce. There was an acceptance of a certain “lumpen” element within society. One major area of success in the UK under the former administration was tackling the problems of getting lone parents back into mainstream society and the workforce.
The current Minister for Social Protection has shown a willingness to tackle these issues, however it is too late to tackle them now when there is little work available.
Sucking in migrant workers, who have stayed and now have children here has made the future much worse. However in many cases the option to return is either not feasible for economic or social reasons.
The number of school leavers reaches its lowest levels this year and 2012, (children born in 1993 & 1994). From 2013 the number of school leavers starts to increase
Serious social unrest looks as if it is the most likely outcome as substantial levels of unemployment and emigration lead to the targeting of non nationals.
Germany, Italy & Austria together with almost all of the new EU members from the East have natural declines in population. This declining population has assisted them handling economic problems.
Whereas Ireland has decided to go another road entirely. The future does not look very pleasant.
But if you compare the demographic history of rural Ireland over the last two centuries with equivalent rural areas in France there is nothing particularly unique about the demographics of the 26 counties. Rural areas with no serious industrial heartlands all suffered population declines. What was unique about Ireland was the population explosion of the 18’the century and the fact that during the 20’th century the rural population in the South decided to defy political and economic reality and detach themselves from the rest of the UK economy into which they were fully integrated.
The demographic history of Brittany is particularly illuminating…
http://insee.fr/fr/themes/document.asp?reg_id=2&ref_id=16745
The Table “Évolution de la population bretonne par département sur deux siècles” shows the difference in population growth between departments which are purely rural, Côtes-d’Armor, and the the other dept which have at least one or more industrial cities. Those dept with cities have slow but steady growth. But most of the natural population growth still leaves the region. While the one purely rural dept loses population with pretty much the same shaped curve as the ROI.
Dublin was almost purely an administration city and smaller than Belfast for most of the 50 years before 1920. The Free State government deliberately cut itself off from the Belfast / Clydeside region and picked repeated arguments with its best customer for short term political expediency. And the rest, as they say, is history.
@ Niall
“We are now left with a participation rate of approx. 57%, far below the level necessary to maintain a modern European society.”
If it is any consulation, the latest US participation rate is just as bad, 58%, dropping off from 63% during the bubble. This does not include the million odd illegal Mexican workers who have returned to their home country. As the US becomes more like Mexico and Mexico becomes more like the US, there is less pull.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2011/07/trends-keeping-would-be-mexican-immigrants-home/39622/
I would assume as Ireland becomes more like Eastern Europe you might see the same exoduse in mass.
My appologies, completely misread the graph. The 58% is employment population ratio.
@ JW
“As the US becomes more like Mexico and Mexico becomes more like the US, there is less pull.”
I have to say, now you’re back in celtic tiger mythology land.
To quote Warren Buffet on the US economy, “the athlete is down, but he is the super athlete”.
Have you ever seen the card board boxes people live in on the Mexican side of the border, not far from San Diego?
Do they look much like these ones?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2021173/Americas-city-broken-dreams-50-jobless-destitute-people-set-forest-community-New-Yorks-doorstep.html
it is interesting listening to the Irish pretending America is in similar shape to Ireland. Celtic Tiger myths live on….and sure Ireland will be striding the world stage again, spades in both hands, punching above it’s weight and America will be broke…right?
Is that the attitude that destroyed Ireland in the first place?
Such lack of respect for those who bailed you out,… shocking….as we started on emigration, consider…are there lines outside the Irish embassy in the US with people looking to emigrate to Ireland…don’t think so.
Ah Lads, will ye stop with the negative vibes !
Currently we are on our annual European peregrination. Herself has a certain grá for the Coco Chanel handbag and the current model being a bit jaded and, unwilling to submit to the extortionate demands in such matters on the part of our local retailers, we had resolved to acquire a new model in Strasbourg.
Upon enquiry, we were advised by an elegant old dear, clearly a devotee of the same herself, that the said handbag had not been available in Strasbourg since the Crisis of ’08, a clear indicator of decline which in Ireland could only be rivalled by the demise of Comhaltas Ceoltóirí Éireann.
As for Switzerland, should you be troubled with the task of driving through the splendid and perfectly coiffed countryside, do not stop for a cup of coffee. The current rate of exchange, uncorrected, will soon make into memory, the sight of Swiss goods abroad. (There’s a trade, go long on Swiss chocolate.)
And as for Italy, well, where do I start ? My business contacts tell me that, occasional bright spots apart, many small businesses are lumbering along with turnover of typically 30% of their former peaks.
Public services are dwindling. Many roads, absent repair these last four years since, make Donegal look good ! Up to a few years ago, there threatened an outbreak of social mobility. Now, children once destined for third-level education of one sort or another, relapse into the honourable but unsatisfactory stations of their immediate forebears. The better paid manual workers earn about €8.00 per hour, an interesting comparison with our minimal wage levels.
Italy is not well set to make the jump to late-20th century-style re-industrialisation. Despite gross concerns extant these many years – since Italy shut down her three nuclear reactor complexes – electricity is still on a knife edge. Households typically are required to manage on 2.5Kw whereas we in Ireland allow 18Kw as a normal domestic installation. Broadband is simply unavailable across large tracts of the land, even by means of dongles.
In recent days, many Italians have thrown up their hands in despair at their Prime Minister’s promises of “austerity”. There are, they say, too many people employed by the State, doing too little while being paid too much. Now, where have we heard that before.
We will be in England later this week and if the experience our most recent sojourn therein still colours matters, the ordinary English fellow is not having such an easy time either.
Of course I am painfully aware of all our shortcomings ! One of my own children is now faced with a choice between New Zealand, Australia or the USA. But, by golly, he will go with a Masters in Strategic Management under his oxter and, by the Grace of God, will return in a few years, fit to join and to aid what will inevitably be a resurgence in our affairs.
We at last have a Government which, though imperfect and inadequate in many respects, nevertheless shows every sign of seeking to govern in aid of the Common Good. Market movements in recent weeks betray a begrudging confidence in Ireland. In embracing the need for change, we have confirmed our nobility as a people. We move, however gradually, further from the dung heap and ever closer to economic prosperity. Yes, it will be 2015 or 2016 before we can all begin to feel “normal” again but we are getting there.
In the meantime and as an essential of our progress, let us take heart and realise that we have passed the nadir of our recent misfortune. We have what it takes to prosper once more. We have learned and will apply the lesson of the evil of rampant asset bubbles for at least two generations to come.
Key to all, our young people are better educated than ever before and the experiences of recent years will linger in their consciousness. They will take these experiences through the years during which they will take over the tasks of stewardship. They will not succumb to gombeenism as did too many of former generations. They will consent to more perfect forms of governance and will vindicate even the most demanding of our hopes and dreams.
As ever, with all the best to all,
Sincerely,
Eric.
@ Jmccssft – Yes you are completely correct. One of the unusual factors in Ireland that as late as the last decade of the 19th century that large parts of rural Ireland still had a very basic subsistence agriculture, surviving beside a large commercial agricultural sector. The creation by Balfour of the Congested Districts Board in 1891 was a reaction to that.
However perhaps to keep a current feel to the discussion, let us assume that the Irish economy was to grow at a rate of 6% per annum for each of the next three years. Most initial growth will occur in capital intensive export sectors and I think it is reasonable to assume that the first 2% annually will be absorbed by productivity increases. Because there are so many workers on reduced hours, much of the initial increase in hours worked will be absorbed by existing members of the workforce. With approx. 25% of workers on reduced hours, the capacity to absorb the majority of those hours without seeing any significant increase in employment is there. Growth of 6% per annum over three years may lead to just a very low level of growth in employment, perhaps less than the level of increase in the workforce. It took more than six quarters of constant growth for employment levels in Germany to increase in any significant way.
If/when growth returns to the Irish economy, it is very likely to be of the jobless variety. Additional income will be absorbed by reducing debt levels by both the earner but also more crucially by the State, not allowing for any significant increase in.employment numbers in the job intensive service sector. The Germans did not have the problem of excessive personal debt.
Emigration levels of up to 2-3% of the population per annum are required to bring the economy into some form of equilibrium. The problem is that it looks like young Irish will makeup the vast majority of those departing while many of those who have recently settled here are here permanently. This I personally feel will become a major issue within the next year or so.
Below I set out the number of little Lithuanians born in Ireland. The figures are taken from their Demographic Yearbook 2010. The Irish CSO does not publish such detailed figures.
Lithuanian Births in Ireland per Lithuanian CSO
Year 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Airija 7 170 413 596 684 762 804 Ireland
The movie that comes to my mind when I think about Ireland is Braveheart. The ‘Noblemen’ remind me of the Irish ruling classes (politicians, bankers, civil servants, accountants, etc.). The peasants wouldn’t fight for them because they knew they didn’t care about them, they just cared about preserving their lands. Then the analogy begins to fall apart because there’s no William Wallace or Robert Bruce.
For some reason Ireland is leaderless, and has been for a long time. Leaders aren’t just needed for war, they’re also need to build a nation. I think one of the reasons people leave is that they believe that country has no direction.
“Now tell me, what does that mean to be noble? Your title gives you claim to the throne of our country, but men don’t follow titles, they follow courage.” – Braveheart
[…] emigration in Ireland, particularly in an historical context – part one is here and part two is here. The following table took some time to research and I think it shows the historical scourge of […]
Interesting piece, as far as Britain was concerned Ireland was a source of cheap labour to meet the needs of the expanding economy from the industrial revolution onward. But Ireland was also a potential economic rival which in part motivated the Act of Union. The famine had the effect of restructuring society much as the Enclosure Acts & the Clearances had in the UK. Thus creating the rural middle class which came to hold key positions in Irish society, the Church being probably the best example. Both British & Irish ruling elites had no sympathy for those starving & dying during the famine, then, as now it is an opportunity to reshape society in the interests of those elites. Emigration is a useful tool for Govts. to have as a way of managing an recession/depression. It provides for a fall in unemployment thus easing pressure on state finances. While politicians and the media cry crocodile tears for those who leave the real pain is felt by those left behind, who are mainly from Middle & Working Class areas. Although in this crisis the main problem stems from the socialised bank debt which is killing the economy via austerity, making recovery even harder then usual to bring about. Measures being taken by Joan Burton are of no benefit in this situation, other than as a handy scapegoat to use to sway anger away from govt. failings. Jobs are needed, not harassing the Unemployed & Single Parents. I find it hard to describe the hatred people I know who rely on welfare to survive have for Joan Burton in particular. Labour will suffer for the continuation of FF/Green policies, starting with the upcoming local elections. Finally Niall raises an issue which I agree is bubbling under the surface. Namely anti immigrant sentiment and the politics that comes with it. It is only a matter of time before this gains some sort of serious political traction. Those who will bear the brunt of this are those immigrants as Niall pointed out who have stayed for various reasons, leaving Ireland is not an option, especially for those who have come through the asylum process. While for those from Eastern Europe who have remained here the choice to remain is more social (children, mortgage etc). At some point a new political party will emerge that will have anti immigrant politics in its array of ideas. Sadly it is entirely possible that such a formation could be of the neo-Nazi variety with violent street politics at its core. In these times when the centre cannot hold do such ideas gain currency. We’re in for a bumpier ride.
For more on asylum stats see http://www.orac.ie