“we do not anticipate there being any major speculative development for the next five to seven years” – Savills, Ireland

Well that seems about right. The above is from Joan Henry, head of research at Savills in Ireland and she is referring to Irish residential property development following the publication of Savills latest summary of development land values in Ireland – available here. Still, the assessment is sobering; that it might be 2015 or indeed maybe 2017/8 before there is further major speculative residential development. Mind you, with 23-33,000 vacant dwellings in Ghost Estates plus an overhang of vacant property of more than 100,000 dwellings and a population that appears to be stagnating with a high birth rate and low death rate mostly offset by high net outward migration and with what is likely to be a below-average obsolescence rate not to mention building costs that are still twice those in Northern Ireland, it’s difficult to come to any conclusion other than in the short term at least, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to build more residential property. Unless it is pre-sold.

That said, there are a number of major schemes apparently progressing which will deliver new housing in and around Dublin in the next couple of years. Reputed NAMA Top 10 developer, the Cosgraves are developing 600 dwellings on the site of the former Dun Laoghaire Golf Course and Sispar (consortium including Park Developments) are to build 375  dwellings at Greystones Harbour, for examples.

The Savills report today is also noteworthy for pointing out that prime property in D2, D4, D6 and south suburbs should not be setting you back more than €400/psf which represents a fall of up to 64% from peak. Nominal site values are back at 1999 levels and there is evidence that the collapse in site values of 75-90%+ affects all locations including prime – so that field in Athlone has seen the same % fall as the most gentrified leafy locale in Dublin, although the field in Athlone is probably only worth agricultural prices whereas an acre in D4 might still fetch €2-4m, according to Savills.