It’s “devoid of any substance and verge on the ridiculous” according to the Greek finance ministry but as Greek 10-year bonds touch even greater highs this afternoon – presently trading at 14.9% mid-point – it seems that something may be afoot in bond markets. The claim is that a Citibank employee was responsible for an email which speculated that Greek authorities might seek to implement a restructure/default/burden-share scheme over the Easter holiday weekend.
Meanwhile, Ireland’s 10-year bond has reversed all the gains since the announcement of the stress test results on 31st March, 2011 and are presently trading at a record 10.28% mid-point compared with a previous record closing of 10.22% just before the announcement of the stress test results and details of the bank restructuring. Portugal’s 10-year bond is also in record territory trading at 9.5% mid-point. If there is any cheer it is thatSpain’s 10-year bond has eased back today to below 5.5%. It is still a mystery on here as to howSpain’s banks are so healthy and their property sector so relatively unscathed by the financial crisis and construction and housing bubble.
The concern is thatGreecewill default and thatIrelandwill follow closely on her heels. And if a default is inevitable forIrelandthere are actions that can be undertaken now to try to make the default as orderly and inexpensive as possible. Dealing robustly with bondholders (senior and subordinated) would fall into that category of discussion.
So Greece’s drama is seemingly fuelled by a rumour but this coming Sunday, there will be the now-weekly fact of a demonstration in the villageof Ballyhea in Cork calling for action on bondholders. It’s not a high-profile march, takes no more than 15 minutes and will be held again this coming Easter Sunday morning at 10am, with folks meeting from 9.45am in the car park of the church. It’s a non-political march and isn’t accompanied by any fanfare. There’s a website here. Here are some photographs from recent marches.
NAMA Wine Lake 
[…] me again about the rumours of a Greek default over the Easter […]
If You want my 2 cent’s. Spain will fall into the TroKia by September/ October. At which point the Printing Press’s will be cranked up. Wold anyone like to make a bet on this? CFD, ETF, CDO, ETC ?
Never heard of the place before but fair play to the people of Ballyhea.
A finer looking bunch of Irish citizenry is difficult to imagine.
Greece is bankrupt. It must default or face revolution.
However default will not be enough.
They still have to balance the books.
The Euro is a shambolic currency.
Good point about Spain. Given that banks such as Santander must have been exposed to losses here via store and credit card lending it is incredible to see nothing happen. Which to me suggests their fall will be sudden, swift and dramatic.