This post will be updated as more details are released from Brussels
(1) €85bn bailout – €50bn for the day to day running of the country. €35bn for the banks. €10bn immediately and €25bn as a contingency for the banks. Headline external bailout – €67.5bn because €17.5bn coming from Irish resources (€12.5bn from NPRF and €5bn from cash reserves).
(2) Of the €35bn for the banks, €12.5bn is to come from the NPRF. The NPRF has a value of ~€24.5bn of which ~€7bn is already invested in BoI/AIB preference shares. Announcement today will leave c€5bn in NPRF if contingency is drawn down.
(3) €3.44bn is coming from the UK at xx% for xx years, €393m from Denmark and €598m from Sweden.
(4) €10bn to be “invested” “immediately” in the banks – this was really about the banks.
(5) Statement from Central Bank of Ireland expected shortly regarding recapitalisation of the banks – €10bn immediately. AIB expected to be 100% nationalised. Speculation that both BoI and ILP will be in majority State control.
(6) “Blended” interest rate of 5.83% combined – RTE citing “government sources”, Four year plan assumption was 6%
(7) We have been given an extra year to meet 3% deficit:GDP – RTE.
(8) Average length of loans 7.5 years
(9) €67.5bn external assistance – €22.5bn from IMF and €45bn from EU including UK, Denmark, Sweden
(10) What about ECB funding – €90/100bn in the six State-guaranteed banks at 29 Oct 2010?
(11) “Best available deal for Ireland” – An Taoiseach
(12) Senior bondholders unaffected
(13) “wider application” of subordinated bondholder haircutting – that implies BoI and AIB.
(14) 118% debt:GDP in 2013 if €25bn bank contingency needed
(15) We potentially return to 1992 level of tax being used to service debt in “worst” situation
(16) “We’re out of bond markets for 2011 at any rate”
(17) Default would be a huge problem to euro banking system. Lehmans default had consequences far afield. We are a responsible country that has benefitted greatly from the reserves of the ECB.
(18) John Corrigan at the NTMA and governor Patrick Honohan key to negotiating deal (no mention of Matthew Elderfield).
(19) Jiggery pokery with banks – Regulator to tells banks cap requirements – banks to decide how to fund.
(20) Professor Constantin Gurdgiev – Yet another announcement on banks’ recap (same old same old) – bank recap at least €67bn (€32bn already plus €35bn into the facility). Still believes banks will be undercapitalised because of future mortgage losses. Believes default or restructuring will be required.
(21) ECB order banks to “deleverage” to replace emergency liquidity. Banks must therefore raise deposit rates therefore higher mortgage and lending rates in Ireland.
(22) Michael Noonan: EU have won the pool, Ireland has played a poor game here.
(23) Helpful if proposals are owned by Irish society – European Commission
(24) Ajai Chopra – Irish authorities have been proactive in finding solutions to fiscal/banking problems
(25) IMF statement available at imf.org. Maximum interest rate charged on IMF funds is 4%. If the “blended rate” is 5.83% then that means the EU is charging 6.75% (IMF is providing 22.5bn of 67.5bn external bailout – 1/3 of 4% plus 2/3 of 6.75% equals blended rate of 5.83%). What was so difficult about explaining that Mr Cowen, would only have taken 30 seconds and wouldn’t have delayed the news conference.
NAMA Wine Lake 
What is your source document for this information? I havent seen anything posted on the ECB website. Much thanks.
BBC/RTE live broadcasts in the past 45 mins – sorry no hard link at present.
Will the Irish Central Bank statement about AIB, BOI and IL&P be released after Cowen finishes speaking?
An Taoiseach implied there would be a delayed process where the Regulator tells the banks the new cap rate (12%) and the banks decide how they raise it and only then will be State injections. There were earlier indications that the Central Bank would make a statement this evening. Not now sure whether there will be a statement.
interest rate from eu/imf/uk etc must be higher than 5.8% as nprf/existing cash was/is financed at rates less than this…guess that ‘real’ cost of funding from external parties is 7%
we have to assume/hope that ntma/cb/dept of fin negotiated the very best deal possible…lets give them that much credit…therefore the scary part is that if this is the ‘best’ deal that could be negotiated the hole is just bigger and more scary than anybody could ever imagine……
Any detail/speculation on what this means for NAMA? If NAMA bonds are only exchangeable at the ECB surely they will want to wean the banks off these as well. Therefore as myself and WSTT have been saying for a while now, NAMA will be forced to sell off assets. Also will the €5bn fundraising now be abandoned or will it come from the State or Bank side of the bailout?
Does that mean that my rights as an Irish citizen do not rank Pari Passu with those of private banks and their debt? It goes without saying that if possible the banks should be assisted, should this assistance be ranked ahead of or equal to the rights of the citizen. My private property is mine, the same is true of theirs – there are lots of Quids here but little pro quo.
Is NAMA now taking the loans less than 20M from AIB & BOI?
10. The remaining land and development loans of <€20mn will transfer from Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank to NAMA by end-Q1 2011.
[Source – http://www.financialregulator.ie/press-area/press-releases/Pages/Technical.aspx%5D
More smoke and mirrors. €67.5 billion bailout plus raid the NPRF.
And it is not half enough. To have any chance at all it means replacing the ECB loans with depositors money and selling the NAMA loans on urgently.
Just digesting alot this morning but does it not seem to anyone else that they have AGAIN put the INBS/Anglo issue on the long finger? Have given an already under-resourced NAMA an additional £7bn and 650 extra borrowers (and one assumes 650 more business plans). Seeing has they haven’t yet gotten through 30 of the business plans this seems madness. What should happen is the transfer teams from INBS and Anglo should be merged with NAMA, that at least would give them a fighting chance to get through the necessary administrative workload. There is no mention of funding for NAMA being provided by the bailout so will NAMA be announcing a new strategy in relation to how it is going to deal with the loans going forward?
The cash being provided by Irish taxpayers, the IMF, and European monetary authorities isn’t bailing out bank shareholders, and it’s not being used to help Irish citizens who took out mortgages they can no longer afford.
Rather, those Euros will be deployed to help spare senior bondholders on Irish debt from suffering harm.
Were Ireland (or Greece) to restructure its debt rather than seek international bailouts, the German banks that own a disproportionate share of those bonds would have to write down the value of their assets, raise new capital or, in a pinch, seek help from their own government.
This is not a bailout for Ireland – it is a bailout for Germany and its banks.