Our new-ish Financial Regulator, Matthew Elderfield, has today published the residential mortgage arrears figures for the third quarter of 2010. Here is the latest together with the historical figures (no data was accurately collated before Q3, 2009.
The figures show the number of mortgages in arrears for more than 90 days has increased by 4,034 from the previous quarter, very slightly down from the 4,110 increase recorded in the previous quarter. However the 91-180 day+ arrears have increased by only 782 whilst the 180 day+ arrears have increased by 3,252, showing an acceleration in the rate of growth of this component. This is worrying because arrears due for more than six months are more likely to result in default.
Repossessions continue at an incredibly low level – just 81 in the quarter. The 12 month moratorium on repossessions will expire in February 2011. However there is evidence of emerging legal precedent protecting home owners. And a new group, New Beginning, is providing free legal and financial advice to home owners in difficulty and they had quite a success yesterday.
As to the question of how many mortgages are in trouble – you would certainly include the 40,472 announced today and remember that is to the end of September 2010. The trend would suggest that another 2,000 are in arrears today as we are mid-way through Q4, 2010. In addition to the arrears, a number of mortgage holders have restructured their mortgages by deferring repayments in some manner (commonly (a) going on interest-only repayments (b) a complete holiday with both principal and interest rolled up to be repaid in full later and (c) reducing repayments with the roll-up of any shortfall for future repayment). No figures are reliably reported on these restructurings but Charlie Weston last week estimated there were 45,000 mortgages that had restructured though he claims some of these will be shown in the arrears figures (15,000 in fact). In addition there are mortgage holders in receipt of state assistance and the Taoiseach told the Dail last month that some 16,700 had received some assistance but it was unclear if that was cumulative or the position today and also if any of these 16,700 overlapped with the restructured or those in arrears. My view is that the 100,000 estimated by Morgan Kelly last week is closer to the reality than the Taoiseach’s claim of 70,000. Regardless though at an average of 2.75 people attached to each mortgage (the average household size), the numbers unable to meet their mortgage repayments is substantial.
The group set up to examine options for dealing with mortgage distress has finally produced its report today. There will be further comment here once it has been analysed.
NAMA Wine Lake 
[…] Nama Winelake points out, the rate of Irish mortgages going into arrears for more than 90 days is creeping up — though […]