The Nationwide Building Society has this morning published its UK House Price data for September 2010 together with its more detailed Quarter 3 House Price Review. The Nationwide tends to be the first of the two UK building societies (the other being the Halifax) to produce house price data each month, it is one of the information sources referenced by NAMA’s Long Term Economic Value Regulation and is the source for the UK Residential key market data at the top of this page.
The Nationwide says that the average price of a UK home is now GBP £166,757 (compared with GBP £166,507 in August and GBP £162,764 at the end of November 2009 – 30th November, 2009 is the Valuation date chosen by NAMA by reference to which it values the Current Market Values of assets underpinning NAMA loans). Interestingly the average house price at the end of September 2010 being GBP £166,757 (or €193,438 at GBP 1 = EUR 1.16) is only 4% below the €201,364 which the Permanent TSB/ESRI said was the average nationally here at the end of June 2010.
With the latest release from Nationwide, UK house prices have risen by 2.5% since 30th November, 2009 the date chosen by NAMA pursuant to the section 73 of the NAMA Act by reference to which Current Market Values of assets are valued.
Recent forecasts for the UK housing market have not tended to be good. Whilst Capital Economics has produced yet another headline-grabbing prediction of a 25% decline in the next 2-3 years, most commentators are suggesting an easing of prices. The EU bank stress tests published at the end of July 2010 suggested a base case of no change in UK residential prices in 2010 which would mean an 2.87% fall in prices between now and the end of the year. The UK economy is showing surprising resilience – figures in August 2010 showed GDP grew by 1.2% in the second quarter and the British Chamber of Commerce in August forecast the economy would grow by 1.7% in 2010 and 2.2% in 2011. However savage cuts are in prospect for the UK’s public service and in October 2010 these cuts will be outlined in some detail, supply has been bolstered by the abolition of HIPS (akin to BER certs) in June and which had cost about £300. Mortgage lending in the UK fell in August 2010 as did the number of homes sold.The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) have also suggested that more sellers are returning to the market but that there are fewer would-be buyers, suggesting declines are in prospect.
UPDATE: 7th October, 2010. With the sensational headline “largest monthly decline on record” the Halifax today produced its September 2010 numbers which saw a fall of 3.6% though this brings the Halifax into line with the modest annual increase shown by rival the Nationwide Building Society. The Nationwide generally produces its numbers before the Halifax each month and is the source for the UK residential data at the top of this page.
NAMA Wine Lake 