On this side of the border Sinn Fein party leader Gerry Adams is consistently the second most popular leader (after Labour’s Eamon Gilmore), however the party he leads seems stuck with the support of only around 10% of the electorate. This would seem to make the party’s position on NAMA reported today pretty irrelevant. It is reported that Sinn Fein is calling for a commission to dismantle NAMA in the most responsible and economically feasible way. Its policy on NAMA sets Sinn Fein apart from the other four main political parties Labour, Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and the Greens (who collectively attract the support of some 80% of the electorate) who are all committed to keeping NAMA though the main opposition parties, Labour and Fine Gael, have indicated unspecified changes may be made to NAMA should they gain power.
All of this comes at a politically nervous time. Although the Fianna Fail/Green coalition government effectively enjoys a working majority, this is only as a result of support from independent deputies and obstructing by-elections for three vacant seats. On this latter point, Sinn Fein has launched legal proceedings to force the government to hold the byelections for seats which have been vacant since June 2009 (Donegal, Fianna Fail, Pat Gallagher), February 2010 (Dublin South, Fine Gael, George Lee) and March 210 (Waterford, Fianna Fail, Martin Cullen) – the betting is that all three seats will go to opposition deputies which would make the government’s position precarious, though not doomed.
This evening after record highs for Irish government debt on bond markets and rumblings over the weekend about the leadership of the governing party following a below-par radio interview last week which sounded, according to an opposition politician, as if the Taoiseach was between drunkenness and a hangover, the Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Finance Minister (the relatively popular Brian Lenihan who confirmed at the end of last year that he was suffering from what appears to be pancreatic cancer though he claims his medical treatment is leaving him fit enough to do his job) made a brief joint appearance at government buildings with the Taoiseach confirming he was getting on with the job with the support of his party and the Finance Minister effectively pledging loyalty.
The next general election is due by May 2012. A majority of people want an earlier election, which given we are mid-term and the financial crisis has been very costly is hardly strange. However it would seem that NAMA is more or less safe whenever an election does come and regardless of any likely result. The table below shows the current composition of the Dail (Irish parliament) together with the two latest opinion poll results.
NAMA Wine Lake 