Property giant and arguably lead-valuer to NAMA, CB Richard Ellis, has issued its periodic report on the Irish commercial sector and again concludes that there is evidence of stabilisation by reference to total returns from the investment sector of the Irish commercial property market. CBRE go on to say there is some evidence of Irish investors offloading property in the UK which has seen advances in parts of its commercial sector in 2010. In Ireland, CBRE lament the lack of quality product on offer and note that NAMA has not yet brought product to the market.
The CBRE report comes days after another of NAMA’s valuers and NAMA’s Head of Portfolio Management’s former employer, Jones Lang LaSalle opined that falls in capital values were coming to an end though more deals will apparently be needed in order for this view to be widely accepted.
Despite the optimism from the two property giants, the indications are that commercial property capital values are continuing to fall in the State and indeed that the rate of fall is accelerating. The latest commercial index to be published is the SCS/IPD index for Q2 which shows that commercial capital values fell by 3.5% in Q2 following a drop of 1.8% in Q1. Because this quarterly index is produced after rival Jones Lang LaSalle’s Irish Property Index, it is no longer used in the key NAMA market performance data at the top of this page. The JLL index released at the start of July showed that commercial capital values had dropped by 4.7% in Q2 up from 2.2% in Q1.
UPDATE: 28th July, 2010. The Irish Times reports on the latest SCS/IPD Index with a valuable contribution from Phil Tily, the Managing Director of IPD for UK and Ireland. There is an examination of historical trends which notes that capital values are back to 1999 levels. There is some optimism about a recovery in prices though this seems to be based on the already deep declines in prices (58% from peak on average though Henry Street retail has the highest average decline of 68%).
NAMA Wine Lake 