Archive for May 13th, 2010

So said John Reynolds, chief executive of KBC Bank Ireland (formerly IIB Bank) yesterday according to the Independent. With the Permanent TSB/ESRI index for Quarter 1 of 2010 showing a 35% decline from peak, this would indicate a further decline of 23% from current prices (100 – 35 = 65; 23% of 65 = 15; 65 – 15 = 50). With a further 23% fall in prospect it would be hard to call today’s market The Bottom. Of course Mr Reynolds is reporting what he characterises as a concensus of economists who may be wrong, but it is a sobering affirmation of predictions coming from others like Morgan Kelly, UCD Professor over a long period and indeed Brian Lucey, Trinity College Professor last weekend.

For NAMA who have chosen the 30th November, 2009 as the Valuation Date, it will elevate the mountain that property prices need climb if NAMA is to break even AND suffers greater than expected loan defaults.


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