Dublin set to grow at slower rate than the rest of the State

So says one of the NAMA US and GB valuation panel members, Cushman and Wakefield’s, periodic economic reports published yesterday (free registration required to access the report). Together with Oxford Economics, the C&W estimate is that the State’s economic growth in the 2009-2012 period will be twice that of Dublin (Figure 6, page 7). For those involved in spatial analysis of the State’s future needs, this will be of interest. In terms of housing demand, it may give support to those who argue that demand in non-Dublin areas will be greater than in the capital.

The report itself has lots of interesting data and it sets an overall context into which C&W’s predictions for commercial real estate sit. In brief for western Europe, C&W are expecting Grade A commercial property to recover soonest  (“pricing is now about as good as it will get”) whilst there may be further falls in prospect for secondary property. This supports the key conclusion in a report by property company rival and fellow NAMA valuer, CB Richard Ellis last week.

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Property costing “scarcely more than the cost of a packet of cigarettes per day”

So says Frank Conway, director of the Irish Mortgage Corporation in today’s Examiner when talking about the cost of funding “some substantially reduced properties being launched onto the market” in recent weeks. Elsewhere in the article research undertaken by Myhome.ie shows that two thirds of first time buyers intend buying in the next 12 months – that’s the same proportion as intended buying in the next 12 months last September 2009. A consequence of the tumble in property prices is that banks are phasing out 40-year mortgages. Hopefully the latest Permanent TSB/ESRI house price index due out shortly will throw some more light on settled prices.

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