The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, which is part of Sammy Wilson’s Northern Ireland Department of Finance and Personnel, released its 2010 population estimates for the six counties this morning. Socially, both parts of Ireland behave similarly, especially when compared with the wider European Union. But having said that our birth rate in the Republic is 17% higher than in Northern Ireland which you might expect, with our more Catholic profile; but our mortality rate is 26% lower mostly as a result of our age profile – not to be ageist about it, but the Republic has a far more attractive age profile for its population with only 8% in the 64 years-plus group, almost half the 15% in Northern Ireland. Emigration has returned to the Republic and we now have net outward migration whereas in Northern Ireland there is precise parity between immigration and emigration. Here’s an extract of the numbers and a comparison with our own Census 2011 Preliminary Results and the CSO Population Estimate for April 2011. There is also some comparison with EU averages, mostly sourced from Eurostat.
@ NWL A ten year analysis by Westminister/ NI Assembly constituency is available from http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp41.htm. It is noteworthy that much of the population growth is close to the border and is linked to serving the Southern economy. You also failed to mention that there was net emigration from the Free State to the Occupied Six!
While the North has a reasonably large number of births to foreigners, it is considerably lower than the figures for this State, which are running at over 20%. The level of children born in Ireland but not of Irish nationality would suggest that many of their parents intend to remain here. Emigration will also increase in the North, but probably not to the same extent as here. “Uncle” David Cameron seems as generous with money as “Uncle” Tony Blair was so many years ago. The North also does not seem to have had the same level of migration of children as we have had. For example there were 48,267 births here in 1994, but there were 55,500 children born in that year for whom Child Benefit was paid in 2010, i.e. there are a very large number of children in Ireland who were not born here.
Personally I am very wary of migration figures from the CSO, because they have been starved of the required resources to investigate population movements. For example the Lithuanian authorities estimate 13,048 people emigrated to Ireland from Lithuania alone in 2010 http://123.emn.lt/en/emigration/top-10-destinations while the CSO estimates it at only 9,000 for all of the 12 Accession States http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/current/Population%20and%20Migration%20Estimates%20April%202011.pdf.
The Irish place within the European Migration Network was given to the ESRI and not the CSO, which has not helped, see http://www.emn.ie
There is also a marked reluctance to say that there is massive emigration of people of Irish nationality while there is substantial immigration from some Eastern European states. This will become much more of an issue over the next few years as emigration bites. It will only take a spark but once someone lights it, there is a tinder box full of resentment out there.
At present 19.25% of children for whom Child Benefit is paid fall into “Non Irish” category. This is a mix of children born here and immigration.
Total 1138537
Total Non Irish 219128
The old traditional method of looking at the effects of emigration – GAA player transfers will come into its own shortly. All GAA members are now registered centrally at Páirc an Chrocaigh. I gather membership of an Cumman Luth Chleas Gael outside the island has shot up. Once those figures are available, it will also provide details of movements from the “Occupied Six”
From a housing point of view the role of the migrant may be quite different than the natives. Most are renting and the majority are not in high paid employment so putting together the size of deposit required to buy is close to impossible. The lack of a proper rental market particularly hampers these migrants There are over 40,000 families with children from Poland, Lithuania & Poland alone and the lack of child friendly rental accommodation must be a serious problem. Non nationals also make up a large proportion of rent supplement claimants. The rumoured cuts in rent supplement will have a disproportionate effect on them.
The assumptions that our “guest workers” would go home when no longer required seems very wide of the mark. Not only are they not going home, but more are arriving from certain countries. However crap things are here, they are far better than in Kaunas or Daugavpils. It is the Irish who are leaving.
Thank you Niall, an informative and very interesting post.
“NAMA will help stabilise Northern Ireland property market, senior executive tells conference”-link below.
@Niall,I have searched for the ‘vig’ on the assistance our kind neighbors provided,cant find anything specific-interest rate on Brit. loan.
Appears, we have a good strong hand here,tying in the other NI posts,and not a red one in sight.It would be simply awful,if NAMA flooded the NI market,perhaps unintentionally causing major social unrest and considerable increases in policing expenses.But then again we do have interest payments to make,we all know IRELAND PAYS IN FULL ON TIME !
Hopefully,the rate being charged by Britain is at market,or better yet below.
If NAMA had to dump the crap that was on TV and is in the NI book,it would have a devastating impact on their economy,who says there is no such thing as ‘free money’,decent negotiating position FOR ONCE.
Time for some ‘Realpolitik’,swap the NAMA NI ‘book’, whats the price in a tinderbox like NI,does Kenny have any ‘liathroidi’ or not !
http://wordsmith.org/words/realpolitik.html
‘The British share of the pot is 12-14% or almost €8bn’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/22/ireland-bailout-money-coming-loan
‘The nominal value of Northern Ireland loans that NAMA has acquired from some 180 debtors is £3.35 billion (€4 billion1)’
http://www.nama.ie/news/nama-will-assist-in-stabilisation-of-northern-ireland-property-market-senior-executive-tells-ni-conference/
The aged 65+ pop data in RoI is incorrect. It was 468,000 in 2006, and did not decrease since.
Also, the 0-15 figures seem too high.
@ WSTT Thank you for your kind comments. The position of the migrants here is particularly worrying.
The last Government left a €450M hole for the incoming Minister for Social Protection by among other things assuming that unemployment would be 30,000 less than it actually is. Without any evidence, it was assumed that a large number of foreigners would leave. I have commented elsewhere on this blog that Irish SW payments for a family compare well to salaries being offered in Eastern Europe. Therefore unless both parents are likely to get reasonably well paid work at home, it does not make financial sense to leave Ireland.
Inflation is a good deal higher in for example Poland and while wages are increasing, Ireland on the dole still looks attractive as the Zloty has been devalued against the Euro by nearly 14% since the start of the year.
At present citizens of the EU 12 Accession States make up 9.5% of the registered unemployed with all foreigners making up 17.6% of registered unemployed.
There are also a high number of one parent family claimants from outside the State, approx.16,000 in total, divided roughly one third from the UK, one third from Eastern Europe and one third from the rest of the EU, the US and Africa.
With little or no Social housing being provided, many of these people, but in particular the East Europeans are in the private rented sector with the rents being funded by the State through rent supplements. This makes the proposed cuts in rent supplements particularly targeted. Cheaper accommodation is generally available in certain areas and certain parts of Dublin particularly seem to have a very high proportion of foreign residents.
@ JG If the natives of Lisburn, Limavady or wherever want to have a go at each other that is their problem. I would be far more worried about likely trouble in Phibsboro or Mulhuddart. Trouble there hits me directly.
Emigration will hit the North, particularly those areas which depended on servicing the South. There are already the anecdotal stories of emigration hitting the GAA clubs west of the Bann. It just will be less than here unless social funding falls and that is a political question.
I imagine there are many issues that concern NAMA about holding property in the sterling area, which is funded by way of Euro financing. Once the Euro problems are sorted or at least stabilised, any bets on an old fashioned sterling crisis?
@Niall the quality or lack off is a concern,the NAMA NI book.
Nominal value of book was 4bil hard to figure its worth much more than 1bil today.Surprised that there has not already been a run at sterling.
‘Undeveloped land accounts for £2 billion (€2.4 billion) of NAMA’s Northern Ireland portfolio, investment properties £1 billion (€1.2 billion) and property and land under development £350 million (€400 million). Of the total £3.35 billion Northern Ireland portfolio, 60% represents land that is not under development, 29% represents commercial investments, 10% land under development and 1% residential development.’
link above.