Until the results of the 2011 Census are made public in 2012, the CSO’s estimate of population for April of each year will be the best indication we have of our overall population. This morning they released their estimates for April 2010 which show that the overall population of the State increased from 4,459,300 to 4,470,700, an increase of 11,400 the lowest increase since 1990 when there was an overall fall of 3,700. The other headline is that net outward migration for the year ending April 2010 was 34,500 (emigration of 65,300 partly offset by immigration of 30,800). Immigration is back to 1994 levels and emigration is back to 1989 levels.
Looking at the detail, Dublin’s population decreased by 0.3% (roughly 5,000 people) whilst the Midlands and East of the country increased by 1.6%. Our population is aging with 65+ numbering over 0.5m for the first time. Our birth rate remains one of the highest in the world and death rate one of the lowest.
Expected in the next few days will be the results of the partial review of ghost estates which is likely to show about 80-100,000 new empty homes. With a population growing at 11,400 per year and at 2.7 souls per household on average that means we have a need for 4,000 new homes plus about 5,000 to replace obsolete stock. New homes being completed this year are estimated at 10-15,000 with 8,383 homes completed to the end of August 2010.
Plainly we are building more homes than we need and we still have a substantial overhang of unsold homes. With supply:demand being an important factor in determining prices, there would appear to be overall pressure on existing price levels. Finally here is a compiled overview of our overall population for the past 20 years – and here is the spreadsheet.
[...] news stories like that and reports like this by Mr Singh The Clash’s questions remain relevant for far too many people my [...]
Interesting statistics.
It is truly impossible to separate NAMA from the broader picture.
I noticed that in other countries, for example Japan in particular, media and people in general talk of the demographic profile of the working population and how it affects policy. Which it does.
I have not seen much in this regard for Ireland, but as I recall Ireland is skewed in such a way as to have a glut of capable, working age people. And is skewed in a way that a makes a significant older population ‘safe’ from this economic mess, by virtue of having bought homes before the 80′s or so.
If the ‘safe’ older population are forced to choose will they choose change ? They rarely have before. The extent of Irelands answer to demographic issues appears to be … build a new departure terminal,
“Change? Depature lobby. Gate 22 on your left”