Whilst we knew that there had been a slippage of at least a couple of months in the first payment (was scheduled for pre-Christmas 2009, now estimated to be Feb/March) we are still unclear about what exactly is going on. It feels as if we are living in a totalitarian society where we will be informed suddenly one day that €20bn has been irrevocably paid out in our name.
NCB Stockbrokers said yesterday (how they claim to know is not clear) that the first loans totalling €19bn (presumed to be gross, so after the 30-40% haircut that’ll be €11-13bn of our money) should be bought by NAMA by the end of February 2010. However the firm cites problems with administration of the process (perhaps a reference to rumours that the securitization of some of the loans is unclear with first, second and more charges over the same asset) and the fact that the banks haven’t yet been presented with NAMA’s valuations yet (after which the banks would have a week to contest the valuations which would lead to further delays), both as reasons why the first transfer may not happen until the end of this month.
Remember Brian Lenihan last week indicated all was well with the process and the first loans would be transferred by the end of February? How the EU’s consideration of approval of the scheme and FG senator, Eugene Regan’s complaint will affect any schedule is unclear – most are saying EU approval is a formality and Senator Regan’s complaint will be summarily dismissed (a pity as he cites the four most common concerns about NAMA -
1. lack of transparency
2. flawed valuation methodology
3. no guarantee of credit flows from banks
4. inadequate burden-sharing between the banks and the taxpayer